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Thursday, September 24, 2020

Europe should learn how to decide without national vetoes.

At a recent debate in the Dutch Parliament about the gruellingly debated EU corona virus recovery fund, the country's Prime Minister Mark Rutte openly asked "can you make a budget via an intergovernmental agreement, or can you found an EU without Hungary and Poland?"

That is an understanable expression of frustration, given the recent developments in the two countries. Both Hungary and Poland, are showing total disregard of European values, using only the block's funds for their leaders to stay in power. Either they like it or not, they resemble more of a Soviet republic than a Western one, although it is Europe that funds them.

However apart the fact that technically the EU has not such powers to expell any member state as Rutte hinted, what can it do bring these countries in line with its values?

To be frank, not much aside from limiting access to finances or potentially restricting voting rights in the EU Council. For example, the Article 7 procedure can lead to member states losing their right to vote in the Council.

But determining that a member state is in breach with EU fundamental values, requires EU countries to agree unanimously. Something that will be difficult to achieve, while having two member states breaking lines with the block's values simultaneously.

Not to mention, that if we go down this road of expelling countries out of the EU, where do we draw the line? In the past, many called for Greece's expulsion due to the eurozone crisis and its handling by the Syriza government. Then others argued, that Germany should leave, as it is the one dominating the block to the detriment of others.

Recently many were angered by Cyprus' veto on the proposed sanctions against the Belarusian leadership and the Lukashenko regime. They also called for its punishment and expulsion. If we insist on kicking out members when they aparently behave "un-European", then we will end up with a union with no members at all.

Previously even the Netherlands itself have blocked decisions, rejected treaties or stirred the waters in the block, by trying to promote its own interests. In fact, there isn't a single country in the EU that hasn't used its veto, broke laws and treaties they signed, was fined by the EU Commission or was not ready at the time they joined the block or the Eurozone.

That is the sad reality about Poland and Hungary too. Just like the introduction of the euro in some countries like Greece, their entry in the EU was a political decision rather a confirmation of their readiness. In just 15 years, they went from Soviet satelite states, straight into the West's arms.

Yet it is now evident that while they were keeen to reap the financial advantages to rebuilt their nations and distance themselves from their former communist rulers, socially and politically they were not ready to withstand the changes and challenges. Becoming a stable and sucessful capitalist and most importantly, a liberal and multicultural society, took some of the more progressive countries of Europe, more than 31 years to achieve.

How can we expect the Polish society to reach the same level in less than a generation? No matter how outraging and disappointing is, to watch these two very promising European countries sliding backwards to what they were running from, we got to admit that European integration is a process.

It has its hick-ups and disputes, disasters and victories. Each country progress as an EU member and a society at its own pace. In addition, since democracy is our political system of choice, by default we have chosen the most difficult road to govern ourselves and our supranational institutions. It may offer choice and fairness, but it is harder to achieve a desired goal or unanimity.

As of recently, taxation and foreign affairs are the last bastions of EU law-making that still require a unanimous vote by member states. That can become frustrating in many cases, when like in the case of Belarus the EU failed to reach an agreement because of Cyprus, or when discussing tax harmonisation across the block, something the is strongly opposed by Ireland.

That is having a serious impact both on the reputation of the EU abroad, as it can never be seen as a reliable mediator with a robust foreign policy. Nor of course can it achieve further economic integration in the eurozone, without harmonization of its taxation.

Yet, if we ever decide to remove any unanimity in the EU decision making, there will be countries that will veto the removal of the national vetoes and they won't be necessarily Poland, Hungary or Ireland. The big nations of EU like Germany or France, also like their independent foreign policy and influence in the world, so it is doubtful they will easily concede their interests.

Therefore, we are going in circles. We cannot bypass impasses like the Poland-Hungary veto on a potential enactement of the Article 7 procedure, because we still think individually according to our national interests, which of course suits everyone but when we need to act and reform the EU.

If only EU member states truly committed to each other, apart from their shared financial interests. If every country acted like France, initiating support for Greece against Turkish aggression, then states like Cyprus would not have to veto another decision in order to draw attention onto its own problems.

Because Cyprus' actions, do not come as result of its support for the Lukashenko regime in Belarus, rather the reluctance of most EU states to adopt a decisive hard line against Turkey. As a last resort and in an attempt to twist the arm of its partners, Cyprus had no choice but to act selfishly.

All this could be avoided if Europeans realized that maintaining the veto advantage is a sign of mistrust, immaturity (in European political integration terms), lack of unity but most importantly understanding. If I need to have a veto, to force my interests or point of view onto my partners, with which my economy is so entwined that if I fail they suffer the consequences too, then clearly there is something wrong or incomplete in this agreement.

To fix this, it will need something more than talks of "kicking out" members, blaming others for the faults in the eurozone, sidelining and gaining advantage via financial malpractices which assist tax avoidance in other EU countries, or accusing third nations of meddling when you are happy to receive financial support by them; undermining of course the partnership with other member states you agreed by joining the EU.

I am afraid the only way to sort the EU is by establishing a moral compass firstly within the block, then try to inspire or encourage third countries to adopt it. Europe seems too keen on telling how others should behave, yet among its own members we observe an absolute cacophony of interests that naturally do not inspire others to follow its example, nor respect the EU as a whole and take it seriously.

Although it is the nature of democracy to have conflicting ideas and interests, colliding against each other in order to form a consensus, a veto is a sign of weak foundations. An incomplete design, that cries selfishness or indifference not only by the member state that breaks the rules or uses it, but often by its partners that have a complete lack of undestanding or respect of its point of view.

In other words, if the EU wants to have a robust and legitimate democracy and effectiveness on decision making, it better stop looking like the UN and start resembling increasingly the USA or any other federal state. If it insists to remain under the UN arrangement, then this is a sign that its members are not always allies or partners in a "union", but often competitors and enemies just like the US is to China or Russia in the UN. Only these countries do not share a currency or a single market, which if they collapsed they would ruin all in it.

Wednesday, September 9, 2020

A new Belarus for a future Europe.

Even during a pandemic, political developments haven't stopped in Europe. Some of them particularly have the potent of altering our continent's future image and balance. Since the outcome of the early August presidential election in Belarus, the country has been engulfed by protests and social unrest.

After the aparent "victory" of Alexander Lukashenko by approximatelly 80% of the votes, Belarusians have had enough. Their leader has been in power since 1994 and although he "won" the elections, he has lost the country.

The reasons for the country's citizens' response maybe complex and varied, but no one can deny their disaproval and wish for change. The protesters now march for new fair elections, Lukashenko to resign and a recount of election result.

After tolerating for a long time bad financial policies, authoritarianism, nepotism and corruption plus electroral fraud, the country decided that it is time to turn a page in its history.

Their neighbors in Russia have the same ruling President and elite for a similar amount of time, but either the West likes it or not and although his popularity is dwindling, the Russians are not as willing to rid of Putin just yet. We haven't seen such massive countrywide protests in Russia yet, to try and overthrow him.

The Belarusians though clearly had enough. The unrest started peacefully as demonstrations, but it wasn't long before it turned violent with currently 5 people reported dead, numerous others missing, hundrends injured and thousands arrested.

On 1 September, in a statement by the human rights experts of the United Nations, more than 450 documented cases of torture and ill-treatment of detainees were mentioned, including sexual abuse and rape of women and children.

During this time, Europe has been observing and being vocal about the developments in Belarus, openly condemning Lukashenko and his supporters. However as usual, it is slow to take decisive actions. Sadly, it doesn't have the power to do much, but monitor closely.

The EU and Belarus never had strong ties. The country under Lukashenko decided to remain in Russia's sphere of influence, becoming one of the founding members of the Eurasian Economic Union established in 2014, together with Russia and Kazakhstan.

There have been even indications by Lukashenko that he was been presurised by Putin to accept further intregration of the two countries, literally merging Belarus into Russia. That was stated as recently as in early 2020. This could be another reason why Lukashenko is being rejected by his own people now, or there could be additional motives behind the protests.

Lukashenko claimed that the riots are staged by the West, to weaken Russia and its sphere of influence. He warned that if the uprisisng is successful in Belarus, Russia will be next. However, just before the election, Belarus arrested 32 private Russian military contractors on charges of planning to stage riots.

The incident was downplaid by Putin later on, yet we cannot exclude any possibility that the protests are orchestrated or used by either Russia and the West, in order to change or maintain the status quo in the region.

No matter what version of truth we choose, our concern should lie with the Belarusian people and their struggle to stabilise their country as it hopefully transits towards democracy.

But what could Europe do? If it sanctions the country's economy, it will only hurt the ordinary people that it tries to help. Wether the EU insists on such measures, then these must be applied solely against Lukashenko and his inner circle, plus anyone responsible for whichever kind of violence and human rights violations.

Even so, Lukashenko will not feel the pressure, as his assets and interests lie in Russia. The EU needs the colaboration of the UN, to monitor the situation and prevent further chaos or worsening of human rights violations. For the time being, that is the only help it can provide to Belarus, together with offering refuge to escaping opposition leaders, or financing their efforts and networks.

But what of the future of Belarus and its relationship with the rest of Europe? Many suggest that the country should come closer to the EU. But in reality that can prove very diffucult. Belarus' population, includes roughly 8.3 % ethnic Russians. Around 70% of its households are Russian speaking, with only 30% of its citizens speaking Belarusian at home.

If Ukraine is having problems in moving decisively towards the West and becoming more integrated in the European institutions, what chances does Belarus have in achieving such goal? For the time being, it would be wise to focus on the democratization of the country and removing Lukashenko from power.

If the Belarusian Democracy Movement, as the protests are referred to, is successful and force Lukashenko to step down, then Europe and Russia must be willing to negotiate the new status in the region, but not only in Belarus. Since Russia fears and protests at any Western expansion to the East, then Ukraine and Belarus could become buffer zones and bridges between the two realms.

But that will mean no NATO membership for either of them, with the EU and Russia hopefully being able to put their differences aside, becoming engaged and collaborators in both nations, stabilizing Eastern Europe for good. That will naturally prove very tricky, given the anti-Russian sentiment deep rooted in Eastern EU member states, plus Russia's view of them. Ultimatelly though, it should be up to Ukrainians and Belarusians to deside where their future lies.

The real danger is that the movement is compromised and betrayed by Europe, the US, Russia and the UN, to maintaining the status quo and avoid rocking the boat too much to serve individual nations' interests. Or maybe prevent the risk of another civil war and a Ukraine-like situation. Then the sacrifices of the Belarusian people will be for nothing and all parties will be to blame.

It is time for Russia, the US and the EU or its indivisual states, to stop promoting their affairs in the region and start thinking collectively. The stability and prosperity of Europe benefits everyone, especially the countries in the EU and Russia. It will be wise to abandon the stand-off and find solutions that will actually be lasting. Europe in particular, will gain hugely by a democratic Belarus, but Russia has nothing to lose if it maintains its close ties with the country, while bettering its relations with the EU.

The Belarusian, European, Ukrainian and Russian people deserve a better future together, either as good neighbors or partners. Let us not destroy it due to our inability to see past Cold War crimes and mistakes. Belarus, the best of luck, hopefully a brighter future awaits you.