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Tuesday, July 24, 2018

Trump is making his intentions clear; the problem is how Europe will respond.

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Ever since the US President Donald Trump got elected, Europe has been baffled on how to deal with his statements, tweets or new policies. 

There has been an increasing disbelief of his actions, followed often by a barrage of condemnation or statements by politicians from this side of the Atlantic, especially from EU officials.

The Trump administration started a trade war with Europe alongside China and Canada, two of which are the USA's oldest and closest partners. He repeatedly accused Europe of not paying much into the NATO budget, famously attacking the "free riding" members of the alliance, notably from Eastern Europe.

During his recent visit to Europe and before his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, he even referred to Europe as a "foe" of America, on trade terms. Forgetting perhaps that he instigated this trade war, by imposing higher tariffs on European steel imports.

While he was visiting the United Kingdom, the British Prime Minister Theresa May claimed that he advised her to sue the EU over Brexit, plus he intervened with internal British politics, by showing support for May's opponent, Boris Johnson. 

Most likely this was a very tactical threat to May in order to convince her to follow his instructions, as he pushed for a hard Brexit. He stated that a "soft" exit of the UK from the EU, could kill any future trade deals with the US. Clearly this is what his administration wants in order to continue their "special relationship" with the UK, but also it makes evident what are Trump's plans towards the EU, Europe and Britain itself.

In other words, if the UK wants out, America will only take it under its wing if it opts for a hard Brexit, thus cutting most ties with Europe. Something that is downright scary and many in the British society and leadership do not want. Perhaps Donald Trump is offering a road-map to Theresa May and her European counterparts, on how to proceed with this disaster and the terms, on which they would offer to Britain the much needed trade deal.

And while many Europeans or even Americans remain stunned in disbelief, accusing him of treason or of damaging the EU-US relations, he is doing exactly what he promised during his election campaign; he changes the game rules in global, American and Euro-Atlantic politics.

Are we still sure that Vladimir Putin is the greatest threat to our continent, or that he is the only one to be blamed for the new reality dawning on Europe?

Our problem now is not Donald Trump, but how will the continent adapt to this challenge. He is making his intentions crystal clear to European leaders and the rest of the world, he is very bold and he is pushing for a brand new world order. 

We could either passively accept what he plans to do, follow his example and become more protectionists like the USA, or stick to our interests and carve a new path for our continent, by creating new alliances, trade deals and a military union for our protection.

In fairness it is not all bad for Europe, if we play our cards right this could be very beneficial for us. We should not necessarily be afraid of a closer Trump-Putin cooperation, unless what they aim for is the division of Europe once again. If only the previous US-USSR leaders have met more often to talk, it could save us decades of cold war, hostilities and arms expenditures. 

The problem is that we don't exactly know what they have agreed during their two hour meeting in Helsinki, about Ukraine and ultimately about NATO, the EU or Europe and their future plans for expansion and deeper integration. But even if our worse fears become reality, we could still resist their plans by showing solidarity and proceeding with our own agenda of further unification. There is strength in unity and that could be Europe's biggest advantage. 

The eastern member states, could find the support they need against the "threat" from Russia in an ever closer union, if only of course both they and their western counterparts are able to agree on it. But it could prove hard to be weaned off American money and investments, for exchange of NATO missiles. The old EU nations have a different type of addiction to US support, yet it appears that it is all about to change.

President Trump showed his cards to us openly, he pushed for more contributions in the NATO budget by European member states, if Europe wants still America's protection. He is giving us a choice. Either we up our game and take more responsibilities, or it is time to grow up and proceed with our plans for a Euro-Army, relying at last on our own resources for our protection and foreign policy adoption. 

Naturally there are too many players that will lose out from his new direction of US policies. Notably the arms industry of the US and many other European nations, or our continent's governments that will be forced at last to either contribute more in the NATO budget, or allow the creation of a European Army.

In either scenario they will have to spend more money on defence and that does not go down too well. Hence all the current barrage of anti-Trump articles and hysteria.

We have got to understand that we are entering a new era of politics and status-quo in the globe. Our alliance with the US is being altered and although this may feel scary, it shouldn't necessarily be a disaster. America is looking its own interests first. Perhaps it is tired of being the policeman of this world and it is time to look after its own people.

Donald Trump is looking for better relations with Russia and so should we. His administration is focusing in new directions for investments and new partners, notably in Asia and Africa and this is also something that we should be doing. The recent trade agreements the EU has signed with China and Japan, or Canada some time ago, is a very encouraging sign that Europe is finally moving towards the right direction.

It may hurt that Europe is no longer the centre of American foreign policy's attention, but if we ever want to have a voice and play a bigger role in this world, we need to finally accept that we got to stand up, safeguard, promote and complete what we have already established; a common market, an integrated economy, an open society, a single currency and no borders.

Russia would be a fool to want to destroy such a rich and diverse market at its doorstep, which is also its bigger trade partner and importer of oil and gas. The US on the other hand would not risk destroying the Western alliance of countries that for decades has led, nurtured, defended and promoted. 

It is just time that we got our act together and start fending for ourselves. And Donald Trump, although in a tactless, arrogant and incomprehensible manner, he is pushing us towards that goal. The world is going to be a multi-polar one in the future-hopefully a more equal one- with many new players and blocks arising from the developing countries and regions.

Europe can only be relevant if it decides to unite and seek to promote its interests by itself. The new American administration under Trump, if it succeeds in its goal, could give our continent the motivation it was lacking all these years to complete its unification. 

Donald Trump maybe all that his opponents declare, an arrogant, ignorant politician, unfit for the role of the President of the United States. Or it could be a very bold man with a different vision, which he has trouble expressing it, communicating it or promoting it in a more acceptable and politically correct manner. 

However, he might become exactly what Europe needs in order to change and move on to the next phase in its history and political reality; that of a united Europe.