Most Europeans are unaware of the highly interesting and crucial
times they are living.
Starting from the current year
of 2019, our continent will go through major changes and challenges, that if
met successfully, they will alter Europe as we know it.
By the end of March, one of the
oldest and prominent EU members will leave the union, forcing the block to
readjust internally and externally, on economic and political terms. When
Britain leaves the EU, it will impose several trials to everyone in Europe.
There will be winners and
losers on economic terms, as many EU countries will compete for firms,
companies or banks that were based in the United Kingdom until now. However,
the EU will lose out a valuable member, a wealthy nation, an economic,
political, diplomatic and military powerhouse; one of the only two EU nations
with nuclear weapons.
Britain, on the other hand,
will see its citizens' rights being diminished, as they won't enjoy the same
rights Europe-wide anymore, in case of a no-deal Brexit. In addition, many of
them will have their financial status downgraded.
The country's influence
in Europe will be significantly less, as it will abandon its seats in the
European Parliament, EU Commission and Council. It is doubtful if it will be
able to forge similar influential alliances and partnerships with other blocks.
As if this wasn't enough, there
is a good chance that the U.K. itself will be drastically altered, as Scotland
keeps threatening to have a second referendum if a no-deal Brexit happens.
Never mind, of course, the Northern Ireland backstop and the border issue
there.
Two months later in May, the EU
will have its first elections after Brexit. Traditionally, the turnout for
these elections is always low. But as the European Parliament seats will be
reallocated with Britain's departure, how will the new EP look like?
Furthermore, with a new EU
Parliament and its President, we will have a new EU Commission President as
well as a Council one. That will mean many new faces on the European steering
wheel, but also new alliances.
We have witnessed two
different camps forming in our continent. One that has been gaining momentum
for the past few years and has managed to uphold significant power in many EU
states. The union might be losing one of the most vocal euro-skeptic nations,
however the economic and refugee crises have managed to provide the EU with
worthy successors.
Austria, Hungary, Poland and
recently even Italy, have all been to a certain degree, moving away from core
European values and returning to more conservative, nationalistic,
protectionist and even authoritarian political leadership, that in some cases
they fought so hard to rid of in the past. The reason for this is of course
migration and the problems that arose from it.
Lately the Italian Prime
Minister Matteo Salvini, has travelled to Poland to "break the dominant
Germany-France axis", as he strives to forge far-right alliances before
the European parliamentary elections in May.
He stated that the two
countries could build a new Europe, bringing about a “renaissance of European
values," away from the one that is run by bureaucrats. (The
Guardian) He plans to reach out to many euro-skeptic parties from across
Europe, like Marine Le Pen's Front National, in order to achieve his vision.
On the other hand, France and Germany-the union's two powerhouses-
have recently renewed a decade old peace agreement, the Treaty of Aachen, in
which both nations reinstated their commitment for deeper cooperation. It only
remains to be seen, if they can or are interested in extending this spirit to
the rest of the remaining EU members, or the future ones.
So, we are headed for another dramatic showdown in Europe by May,
just two months after Brexit is expected to happen. Divisions in Europe about
the future direction of the continent are not anything new, however while after
the establishment of the EEC, the consensus was mainly towards building a more
integrated continent, nowadays we see an effort to undo what has been achieved
so far.
The disappointing thing is that it all happens for protectionism
and vested financial interests, immigration and diverging ideologies. The more
liberal northern European states, in order to balance out the loss of their
like-minded Britain, have signed another treaty of cooperation in 2018, named
as the New Hanseatic League of nations. They are calling a greater role of the European
Stability Mechanism, in scrutinizing national budgets.
Contrary to this, the Visegrad group of countries in central
Europe, want less interference from Brussels in their internal affairs, but
then why they decided to join a block that requires the opposite? The absolute
disunited southern nations on the other hand, are still too absorbed by their
financial woes and internal political and social problems. The Balkans are a
brilliant example of this, thus it is no wonder that they are still one of the
poorest regions of the continent.
And while one may blame external factors and meddling, from Russia
or the US administration, we should not rid ourselves from the responsibility
of our own decisions. In a democratic society or community of nations, there is
no guarantee that the right resolutions can always be taken. That is the very
essence of democracy and why this political system requires responsible
participation.
Take Brexit for example. For the Tories deal with their internal
problems, they threw the whole country and Europe, in a totally unnecessary
process that will leave everyone worse off. It is understandable that many in
the British leadership were tired of fighting with other nations in order to
promote or safeguard their interests and values. Especially when not everyone
else wants to commit or play by the rules.
Yet, when it comes to giving more powers to a centralized European
government, in order to achieve consensus faster, it was Britain and the other
big nations in the EU who opposed it. Europe is thus a confused continent going
in circles, not willing to let go of the vision of a closer union as it
realizes the benefits, yet not ready to do what it needs to be done; agree to a
common vision for the future and commit to it.
And while many accuse Germany of taking over Europe, they do not
show the same determination to take the initiative and offer an alternative
plan that will work for all, inspiring them to adopt and devote to it. If the
Franco-German Axis persists and dominates the rest of EU nations, will it work
equally for everyone, without creating second class member states at the
periphery?
If these two countries want to set out a plan to unite the rest of
Europe, then they cannot be seen to serve solely their own interests. If they
want to beat the protectionist, nationalist and populist leaders in the
peripheral states that oppose decisions taken in Brussels, then they will have
to offer better solutions to the citizens' problems of these countries.
But that will be hard to achieve, without rocking the boat too
much in their own pond. Chancellor Merkel experienced a drop in her popularity
when she decided to show leadership during the first years of the refugee
crisis. Similarly, the current French President Macron is realizing now with
protests by the "Gilet Jaunes" movement, that showing leadership and
reforming a country is not always welcomed by all.
And that is only the reaction on a national level. Imagine what
will happen if one seeks to reform a whole continent. However, us citizens must
not wash our hands completely from the direction that Europe will take in the
future. It may be easier to blame our bad politicians, corruption and external
"meddlers," yet we also have a fair share of blame.
Our participation in the European elections has been dwindling,
while on national lever we seem to prefer populist, conservative and
nationalistic parties out of desperation and disappointment. Nonetheless it has
been proven that they cannot offer long term solutions, their only positive
effect is to soothe our anger for a while.
Yet the effects to our societies that a temporary, emotionally
charged change will bring, can have long term disastrous consequences; like
Brexit. That does not mean that we should sit and observe idle, when coming
against injustice, corruption and bad policies from our governments. We just
need to stop swinging from one extreme to the other and commit to a vision that
will offer collectively European nations, stability and prosperity.
And while we focus on that vision, then create a pan European
civil society and pressure groups that can promote this goal. But even more
importantly, participate increasingly and more responsibly in Europe's
politics; starting of course by voting in the European Parliament elections. It
is in our interests and we cannot expect a national government to provide us
everything that we need, in an ever interconnected and globalized world.
The current year will pose Europe with a lot of challenges, that
will set up the agenda which could shape the future of our continent for
decades to come. Will we, the citizens, turn our back to each other while
focusing on our own version of the very similar problems that we are facing, or
will we decide to be bold and set the foundations for a very different
continent?
