Last Friday Northern Macedonia's parliament voted for changing the
country's constitutional name, in order to end the naming dispute with its
neighboring Greece, over the use of the term "Macedonia".
The 27-year-old disagreement, which was the main obstacle to the Balkan
country's NATO and EU aspirations, seems to be finally about to end.
However, nothing is set in stone just yet. The new name and the
ratification of the Prespa Agreement, signed by the two countries last June
that paved the way to the recent breakthrough, must be approved now by the
Greek parliament.
A task that won't be easy. After the euro-zone economic crisis, which
saw the Greek economy shrinking, a humiliation of the country with three
bail-outs and a serious downgrading of the population's living standards, the
Greek voters are ultra-sensitive on matters of national interest.
As result, the country's parliament has a strong percentage of
nationalist parties and MPs, which will make almost impossible such
ratification. Not only that, but the Greeks have taken to the streets numerous
times until now about the issue, as is sure they will do again in the future.
The current ruling coalition is that of the Left-wing Syriza and the
right-wing party of the Independent Greeks, which have decided to pull out of
the government, over Syriza's support for the Agreement.
Independent Greeks' leader Panos Kammenos was always against its
ratification and he resigned last Sunday, forcing Greece's PM Tsipras to call
for a confidence vote this coming week. Given the fact that Syriza's government
is highly unpopular due to its failure to reverse some of the austerity
measures adopted to deal with the economic crisis, it is highly likely that
Greece will head to elections much earlier than expected in October.
Some that keep few hopes in a new Greek government in order to ratify
the Agreement, should be wary. If Syriza is forced to go to elections, possibly
it will lose as the party is quite unpopular right now among the Greek voters.
Thus, New Democracy will gain power, in which there are many nationalist
MPs also opposing such treaty between Greece and North Macedonia. In order to
halt the progress of Golden Dawn and other right-wing parties in Greek
politics, the leading opposition party has itself been forced to give
prominence to its more nationalist politicians.
In North Macedonia, the opposition nationalist party VMRO-DPMNE,
boycotted the ratification session and is also against the deal. If Greece
fails to pass the Agreement, then there is a risk that the current ruling party
in its neighbouring country will also lose the next elections and be replaced
by the nationalists again.
Sadly, pushing any potential solution back for many more years. The
Europeans and Americans are most keen to see the issue gone and resolved, but
as they are in an ongoing tug of war with Russia about influence in the region,
things get complicated.
There are numerous issues and factors involved, not just Greece and its
sensitivity on the heritage, history and territory that feels that are
threatened by its neighbour. The Balkans are a very strategic area, which if
Europe manages to integrate, can be transformed to a very vital region for the
continent.
Naturally various players want a role in it. Turkey and Russia keep
their foot in their region, as well as the US and Europe. This often hinders
development, as the hostility and competitiveness of the big powers, spill over
and fuels nationalism and petty disputes.
Bulgaria had its own issues with the small Balkan country, which like
Greece was on linguistics and ethnic identity. Although it was the first
country to recognize its independence, it refused to recognize the
existence of a separate Macedonian nation and language.
It argued that the Macedonians are a subgroup of the Bulgarian nation,
and that the Macedonian language is a dialect of Bulgarian. Yet despite
their differences, the governments of Bulgaria and Northern Macedonia signed a
friendship treaty to bolster the relations between the two Balkan states in
August 2017.
The treaty was ratified by the parliament of the Republic of Northern
Macedonia on the 15th of and of Bulgaria on 18th January 2018. However, despite
this, there have been occasionally diplomatic fall-outs.
Only last December, a junior partner in Bulgaria's coalition government,
the Bulgarian Nationalist Movement (VMRO-BND), raised the possibility of new
hurdles for Skopje, by threatening to withdraw Sofia's support for Macedonia's
Euro-Atlantic integration.
The party led by Defense Minister Krasimir Karakachanov, was annoyed over recent arguments made by Macedonian Prime Minister Zoran Zaev about the existence of the Macedonian language. (Radio Free Europe).
The party led by Defense Minister Krasimir Karakachanov, was annoyed over recent arguments made by Macedonian Prime Minister Zoran Zaev about the existence of the Macedonian language. (Radio Free Europe).
Incidents such as
these, make many Greeks wary about the point of such compromise. In addition,
when they look at how many Central-Eastern European member states, switched
from pro-European and progressive governments back to more authoritarian, they
doubt that EU membership for Northern Macedonia, will control their irredentism
and a slip back to nationalism.
Given the fragility of the deal and the urgency the US and Europe to
round up the integration process in the region, Athens will be facing pressure
from its Western partners. However, dry diplomacy cannot always win over deep-rooted
nationalist sentiments in all sides.
There is a major lack of trust, which combined with populism, lack of
dialogue and communication, will to change and compromise that are aggravated
and manipulated by foreign powers, as well as nationalist local ones, that make
this ratification a huge challenge.
One would wonder why on earth can't there be a Macedonian region in
Europe, inhabited by a number ethnic groups-as it always has been the case-
which can all be called "Macedonian". And why one of these groups
can't establish a country named Northern Macedonia, which speaks Bulgarian and
if it likes, can proudly hail Greek heritage through the famous ancient Greek
kingdom instead of presenting it as its own, fabricating new history.
The whole of Europe claims Greek heritage so I don't see any problem
here. And there are many countries with no separate distinctive national
language, like Switzerland with four official languages, Ireland with English,
Cyprus with Greek and Austria with German as their national language. Why can't
Northern Macedonia adopt Bulgarian as theirs, in return with guarantees from
Bulgaria, that it will respect their right to exist as a separate distinctive
nation.
What we have instead is a tiny state with an identity crisis, rightly
wanting to self-determinate and create a state, yet insisting on allowing
misguided nationalists poisoning its relations with its two neighbouring
countries, which should be its partners and brother nations.
In addition, as a reaction to this madness we have Greek and Bulgarian
nationalists blocking the country's prospects to prosperity and stability,
which is the only way to achieve a less nationalist sentiment in its
population. Poverty as it is known, goes hand in hand with lack of education,
populism and irrational nationalist ideologies.
Not just in North Macedonia but in its neighbours too. It is no
coincidence that austerity helped the rise of the far-right in Greece, exposing
the Greeks' weakness of keep feeling insecure about their future and see
enemies all around them; instead of trying a different approach to the problems
they are facing.
Sharing the name is not a threat to their identity, if the people of
North Macedonia learn to respect Greece's sensitivities on their history and
heritage. But that will require mutual understanding, dialogue and above all
trust and time.
I wonder why the inhabitants of this region prefer to stick to old
grudges and century old legends or history and allow what they can have in
common, splitting them ever apart.
No one can guarantee that Northern Macedonia will stick to its promises
once it joins the EU, but as the block helped sooth the rivalries between
France and Germany, I am hopeful that someday the Balkans will finally realize
their common and shared future.
Should they fail in a process that took nearly three decades, the only
losers will be the people of this region. Caught in petty nationalism and
foreign interests, the region will remain the one of the least developed of
Europe and most unstable.