It is not very easy to get a clear answer with a yes or a no, especially when the question can not be presented to the people in a format that will require just two answers. The hardest thing will be to persuade the Irish voters to vote for something that only the Irish political elite understands its importance!
But how is the debate in Ireland faring? So far the YES side has an advantage, yet there is a large undecided portion of the electorate that could swing the result either way. About a third of Irish people are still undecided. So the debate is heating up for the past two weeks, in an effort to influence the public opinion.
The result of the referendum won't have any immediate impact to the rest of the EU states or the Treaty's implementation, since the Treaty requires 12 out 17 eurozone states to ratify it in order to be implemented. So even if Ireland votes NO, the Treaty can still be ratified if the majority of the other EU states approve it. This Treaty is very important for the economic future of Ireland, but that of Europe too.
Though Ireland's decision can not be decisive this time like in the case of the Lisbon Treaty referendum, nevertheless the "Eurosceptic" groups have already landed on Ireland to push for a NO vote. Mr. Nigel Farage MEP, a well known British eurosceptic but also Mr. Declan Ganley, founder of the eurosceptic group "Libertas" are already here to help defeat the Treaty. Understandably though, all eyes of Europe are on Greece and France at the moment. Because of the recent developments and huge changes that happened there after the recent elections in both countries.
Some are calling for a postponing of the referendum in Ireland, on the grounds that Ireland should not vote and expose itself if the vote is NO, in case of a formation of a Greek anti-austerity government that might lead to the country's exit from the eurozone. Or if Mr. Hollande, France's new President, manages to end or losen the German led austerity policies in EU.
The effects of either developments though, won't be known for months to come and Ireland's Taoiseach Mr. Enda Kenny TD has declined any calls to postpone the referendum. Besides, even if Hollande and the Greeks manage to convince the rest of Europe and especially Germany on a growth pact for EU, this Treaty won't be renegotiated.
The Irish Government and many other political groups supporting the Treaty, have launched a "myth debunking" to counterpart the NO supporter's claims that link this Treaty with austerity. The NO side has linked every austerity measure approved by the Government, like the new household and water charges to the Treaty in order to gain support. I generally disagree with the NO campaigners' stance, though I totally understand their reservations. But by trying to exploit the current economic crisis and the public's disapproval of the austerity measures in order to gain support, they are in danger of failure.
This Treaty is not an EU Treaty, rather an intergovernmental agreement, a promise of one state to each other in keeping their books in order. Now why this hasn't been happening until now and we need this Treaty to bind our leaders to do the "right thing," keeping some budgetary discipline that the eurozone membership requires, is something that I do not understand.
Our leaders seem to behave like children that do not trust each other and need to put in place different treaties to make sure no one cheats. If the Czech Republic and Britain had agreed to be part of this Treaty, then it would be an EU Treaty. There are plans and hopes though that this Treaty will be incorporated into EU law in 5 years time. In this case the Irish might be called to vote again anyway.
The Treaty has nothing to do with the recent water and household charges, and it won't increase those charges if it comes into effect. The Treaty does allow some policy flexibility in exceptional circumstances, like a severe economic downturn. It does not affect Ireland's taxation system and its corporation tax rate remains untouched. But Ireland won't be able to get a bailout or any funds from the ESM (European Stability Mechanism), the EU’s new bailout mechanism if it votes NO. Other suggested sources for future funding are heavily disputed.
In a nutshell, we do need to control our finances and how much debt we can afford to accumulate. Since we share the same currency such move only makes sense. I do not understand why something like this was not happening until now. Huge levels of unsustainable debt is one of the reasons why Europe is in the grip of this recession. So any treaty that controls our debt and provides with a safety net from which we could draw funds to deal with any future crisis makes sense.
The only argument that I will give to the NO campaigners, is that if we examine the current pro-austerity policies that most European elites seem to follow, then it is clear from where our governments will be keen to cut funds in order to keep their country's debt low; from the social welfare, the salaries and benefits of the workers.
Now in some cases a reform is necessary and long overdue. But as we have seen in the case of Greece, harsh austerity without growth initiatives simply do not work. So what I would really like to hear from our governments, is what policies are they willing to create in order to keep their country's debt in check, in order for me to support fully the Treaty.
Yes, it is fair for the creditor countries to get safeguards that other countries won't act irresponsible, and we got to accept that when in the eurozone, you can not have full fiscal independence anyway. We got to prevent countries of borrowing too much. But punishing the countries that break the rules did not always worked in the past, so what make us believe that it will this time.
This Treaty is only part of the solution to the eurozone crisis. Growth initiatives, the eurobonds and other measures must also be included and promoted in the revival of the eurozone.
Austerity was accepted by signing the IMF/EU bail outs deals; can we avoid austerity by voting NO now? Can we reverse the austerity packages and annul what our previous governments have signed to already? In Greece the Syriza party and its leader Mr. Tsipras believe so. It only remains to be seen how they are going to achieve such thing.
But this Treaty is not only about austerity. It will allow Ireland to have access to funds, a benefit that with this Treaty now is linked to its ratification; there was not such obligation in the Stability and Growth Pact 2011. Other differences of this Treaty with the Growth Pact are that the structural deficit target is subject to enforcement and that the targets must be incorporated into national legislation. Thus they are far more binding.
Ireland will be contributing to the stability of the euro currency and show a sign of good will to foreign investors that the country is committed to the euro and continue to invest in the country, by voting YES. A member state is still free to reach balanced budgets by their own policies, provided the targets are reached. Coordination of economic policies are encouraged, but not harmonization.
The European Commission and Council will monitor a state's progress and a member state can submit its observations on the Commission's report. The Commission may then recommend to the Council that action must be taken and refer the matter to the European Court of Justice. If another member feels a state is in breach of the terms of the Treaty, it may bring the matter to the European Court of Justice.
In other words, each state is not only responsible for its own finances, but it can take action against those who do not comply by the rules. No wonder then Britain and other "Eurosceptic" states are against the Treaty. They just want to keep the perks of fostering the markets' manipulators and big bankers and so they are trying hard to stop this Treaty.
So what will the Irish people eventually vote for? I have to say that this campaign is far more organized than the Lisbon Treaty referendum, and it gives far more information to the issues that matter the most. But as in the Lisbon referendum, the promised stability and job creating did not really arrived, even after the Irish voters ratified it.
There are a lot of weaknesses in the eurozone and the "European Project" that need to be addressed and solved first, before we can promise the European population long lasting stability. Can we expect now the Irish voters to trust their political elites this time? Will the Stability Treaty bring the much needed stability in Europe and if yes, for how long? Perhaps until the next crisis?
That of course caused an uproar among many other European governments like in Germany. Many have threatened to withdraw any further funds to Greece, others predicted the country's exit from the euro-zone.
A number of Germany's and EU officials mentioned that solidarity works both ways and if Greece wants to receive help, it must continue the austerity program and commit to what it agreed in order to receive more funds.
Yes but with what price? The euro and everything that the EU represents and promotes must be for the betterment and benefit of the people of all EU states. Right now what we have in Greece is a total collapse, social, financial and even moral. In a country with very few suicides per year, they now became a common occurrence.
Austerity hasn’t worked in Greece at all, it only put the Greek people in a terrible position to repay debt that was deliberately thrown on to them. Austerity would be good if it was combined with investments, cut the salaries but invest in creating jobs and new industries. So far only the first has happened and it is disastrous for the Greek people. The nation’s pride and confidence is at the lowest point and we are being treated like the Jews were before WW2.
Apart from the slander and the fact that we are being used as the scapegoat for the euro-zone's woes, there are many reports among the Greek diaspora of discrimination and abuse of the Greek ex-patriots, simply because they are Greek. Notably in countries that “give their taxes to the corrupt and lazy Greeks,” like Germany, Austria, Finland and Holland.
Not a great example of European solidarity is it? It is a shameful act and those responsible are the European governments who allowed this to happen.
The euro-zone was flawed by its birth, it was more of a currency union than a monetary union. Our leaders knew that, but still they went ahead with it. Thus the euro became an ambitious project and a symbol for Europe, but to the expense of the ordinary citizens. What good is to a European worker to have a symbol of "European unity," when he has to pay such a high price for it?
What people need is to be convinced that if they take the austerity, better days will come. Right now Germany and the Greek government insist on more austerity, something that the Greek households can not withstand.
If they announced a program for recovery and growth, or at least a road map to end the austerity and begin a relief process, I am sure the Greek people would respond more positively. After all the Greeks showed their support in a recent poll for the euro, with a 75% saying they want to keep the common currency.
And if you think that the Greeks deserve all this because they were irresponsible, well that is only true for the corrupt governing elite and their accolades. Is it fair to put the ordinary citizens under such a harsh ordeal, just to punish the incompetence of their past governments?
How could the Greek public have known that the country was not fit for the euro-zone and that our government lied about the country's finances to enter the euro-zone? They lied to us and apparently they lied to the rest of Europe, but personally I doubt that European governments were ignorant about it. It is well known that the EU Commission knew but did nothing about it. So does the blame fall only on Greece's shoulders?
Our leaders created the euro with many flaws and occasionally all EU states at some stage have bended the rules. The first to do so were Germany and France. As for the debt, it has been accumulated from the exposure or the European banks, mainly the French, German and British to the toxic debt of the USA.
Germany’s economy too was in tatters after the re-unification, but its recovery was partly based on high inflation of those nations that now are in crisis and Germany’s trade surplus against those countries. In other words, our then booming economies contributed to the fixing of the then limping German economy, only to be forced now into an austerity.
Greece’s expenditure is also wasted in its defence and weaponry. Mainly from Germany, France and the USA. So while the Germans are giving Greece money to “save us” they are happy that we buy their tanks and submarines to protect ourselves from where? The Turks, a NATO ally of ours.
The Greeks were blamed for overspending, but it was German cars that they were buying. So by overspending, they were actually supporting the German economy. Perhaps if they did not have developed this bad habit, Germany's economy would not have benefited so much. Besides, it was not only the Greeks who went on a spending spree, but the Irish, the Spaniards and the Portuguese fell in that trap too. All of Europe was overspending, but the smallest countries get always the "spanking!"
There have been also many scandals involving multinationals, among them many German like SIEMENS, of tax evading in Greece. But it is the poor Greek tax payer that is called to pay his taxes while the multinationals, who obviously owe more to the Greek state do not have to face the same rules.
How can we solve the crisis when it is Germany again who opposes the eurobonds, a more viable solution to save the euro. They fear that this will harm their competitiveness, so instead they want to impose the new Fiscal Treaty on others. The Treaty is good to control how much does a country borrow or spend., we need fiscal discipline and unity in the euro-zone. But Germany was the first to bend the rules in other Treaties, who is going to control Germany if they break this one too?
The solution would be, if our leaders want to keep the euro to have a full fiscal union, but that is what Germany and many other "core" European countries oppose for the moment. Bailing the weaker states out with high interest is much more profitable for them, because interests have to be repaid.
Greece does not need austerity, it needs systemic reforms to modernize and update its taxation system that is so complicated and riddled with red tape. It needs to create jobs, cut down on its public sector and stream line its economy. Not have its population starving and being unemployed.
Germany has highjacked the euro-zone and the European project and they are trying to repeat what they did in Eastern Germany on Greece. There they were successful, but can we also get the factories and development to go with it?
The euro is a great symbol of unity and of prestige for Europe. But keeping it alive to the detriment of the people is not justifiable. Austerity would be good if coupled with growth stimulus and funding. Just austerity, and in its harshest form, only turns the public opinion’s against the euro or the European project and it is simply scandalous as all this is happening to save the banks and the please the Markets.
Nothing has been achieved in Greece for the past two years of austerity apart the rise of the far right and the far left. That makes it harder to cooperate and find a solution both within the Greek government and Europe. We need to start seeing investments now in Greece, but all we get from “our partners” are threats!
So even if I support the euro, if it means that the Greeks will have to suffer more cuts and without a plan for recovery, I suggest that Greece should exit the single currency. We should rejoin only when the rich states have eventually decided to create a true fiscal union, fix the eurozone, heal its flaws and when they accept new members, they have to make sure that everything is in order, both in the new member’s books and in theirs.